Enemy Perspective:

Buried Alive

This article appeared in the May 30, 2007 issue of Barstool Sports.

Web site: Barstoolsports.com<

Everyone has been rushing to toss dirt on the Yankees' 2007 season. For example, the esteemed John Kruk stated on Baseball Tonight--even after the Yankees took 2 of 3 from the Sox--that there was NO WAY the Yankees could come back and win the division.

Now, far be it for me to disagree with a NutriSystem Poster Boy, but I disagree. Obviously the Yankees are far from mathematically eliminated, but with two-thirds of the season remaining common sense would say that it's way too early to go burying anyone just yet.

But let me be (gasp) impartial here: what are the Yankees chances, really? Is it realistically possible for teams to come back from such a big deficit? As everyone knows, it has happened, and the popular example to site is a certain season in the late 70s that I won't get into because I don't want to make older readers cry.

The problem with that example is it is 20 years old. Baseball has changed a lot since then. There have been amazing advances in technology and the introduction of performance enhancing drugs, all of which make the game more fun to talk about, if not to watch. (Seriously, thank God for steroids. Otherwise, we'd have to actually enjoy watching an ignorant jackass like Barry Bonds break Hank's record.)

So I thought I'd take a look at more recent seasons for a statistical example to prove it's not only realistically possible for the Yanks to come back, but even likely. That's right people, I'm going to risk my integrity as a BarStool contributor and actually turn in a piece of (gasp) journalism that actually required (double gasp) research.

Wait! Don't stop reading yet! To keep my honor I'll throw in a couple of swears and include at least one horribly fucking (check!) outdated celebrity reference.

I found a site called BaseballRace.com, which may be one of the coolest and most useless ways to waste a Friday morning at work other than Googling "Brandy Chastain shirtless goal." (Check!)

(Note to the head of my department at work, who surprisingly reads this: I'm not saying I spent my Friday doing that, I'm just suggesting it for others. Obviously.) Anyway, the site lets you visually replicate any division race in baseball history by watching the actual standings unfold as they did day-to-day from the start of the season to the end.

I used it for an unintended purpose: to compare the standings on May 25 of every year for the past four years in every division to the end of the season standings for each year. I noted the eventual division winner every year for the past four and then backtracked to see how the winner and the closest runner up were faring on May 25 of that season. (That is the date as I write and the Yanks are 9.5 back.)

If you're not confused or bored yet, you might be surprised at what I found: I was surprised at what I found.

Nine and a half games is a drop in the bucket. A tiny, insignificant amount. It's meaningless. Which we all suspected, but now you can rightfully continue the Red Sox Nation premature panic game that you guys are so fond of.

Note that I wasn't looking so much for "comebacks" in these seasons--I was looking to see differentials. I wanted to see the fluctuation in games behind from May 25 to the end of the season.

Here's what I found: There were eight--EIGHT!--different examples of a fluctuation of at least 9.5 games in the standings involving division winners between May 25 and the end of the season. That's 8 out of a possible 24 division races, or 33%. That's insanely high.

Two of the most relevant examples are from as recent as LAST YEAR:

And some of the more drastic examples are not comebacks, but still crazy examples that standings in May mean nothing:

So that's eight examples in the past four years of dramatic changes in the standings. That unequivocally states the case that the Yanks are far from done, Mr. Kruk.

(Personally, if I was a Sox fan, I'd be a little worried that one of the most inaccurate predicators in the history of baseball analysis was convinced the division was wrapped up.)

Statistically, we can see that they have plenty of time to easily beat the Sox for the division. The Yanks offense is still the best in baseball, even when some guys aren't hitting (like now). When Wang-Pettite-Clemens-Mussina-Hughes gets going, will you really be able to tell me that, all things considered, the Red Sox are a definitively better team?

(That's after I make sure Kyle Farnsworth has an "accident" diving to the stadium. Don't count him.)

The thing is, if the Yankees hadn't gotten off to one of their worst starts in twenty years, would people still think the Sox are as good everyone does?

Of course you're probably saying, "This guy is reaching deep with this article. He's desperate." And you might be right, but I'm going to stick to it. Otherwise, I'd have to accept the fact that the Yankees are dropping their own turd on this season; that almost a decade-long streak of division titles could be coming to an end; that Joe T. will get canned; and that things in the Bronx could be changing forever.

I've also shelled out a lot of money for Yankees tickets and Extra Innings, so I'm not going to write off those investments yet. I'm not even going to worry about this season now.

At least not until after the All-Star break. But if I'm wrong and the Yankees don't turn it around--what will I do? Well, I've lived in Boston for eight years. I've learned a lot about how a fan should act when his team finishes in second place.

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